- Why 10 years (or 15 years) for your historical database?
It is commonly accepted that the longer the reference period, the better the long-term prediction of wind resource should be. However, statistically speaking if a trend is noticed over time (decrease or increase of the wind resource), then extending the reference period in the past could generate a bias for future prediction.
Thus, according to us the best compromise to limit the uncertainty on the long term prediction of the wind resource, regardless a possible trend over time, is to consider a significant period but relatively recent such as 10 years, or possibly 15 years.
If re-analysis data (such as ERA5) allow to get satisfactory information regarding the evolution of the wind resource over periods of about 10 years, some deviations with ground measurements can be observed over longer periods on several locations (see Eoltech publications on this topic). Thus, the relevance of these modelled data can be subject of debate when a trend (upwards or downwards) is observed on the wind resource on periods widely exceeding 10 years. For this reason, in order to limit a risk of bias we have limited to 15 years the historical data available, and we recommend to consider 10 years.